Our Science/ Seba Technology Disruption Framework/ In-Depth
Predictions
Between 2009 and 2014, a number of predictions about the disruptions of energy and transportation were made using tools and methods that would go on to become early iterations of the Seba Technology Disruption Framework.
Disruption of Energy
Convergence of Technologies
The STDF was used to correctly identify solar photovoltaic power, wind power, and electrochemical batteries (SWB) as disruptive technologies that would converge to offer an overwhelmingly competitive value proposition compared to incumbent fossil fuel and nuclear energy technologies. Each of these disruptive technologies have existed for a number of decades, but their performance was comparatively poor on a cost-capability basis up until the 2010s.
Disruption Type
Phase Change Disruption
SWB has properties and features which differ starkly from fossil fuels and nuclear power – namely, near-zero marginal cost production of clean electricity from stocks of assets rather than flows of fuel without air pollution, carbon emissions, or radiological risks.
These new features and properties support new business models and new markets ranging from electric arc furnace smelting to cryptocurrency mining that were not possible with more costly energy technologies.
Disruption from Above
Costs were initially higher than those of incumbents, but passed parity to then outcompete those of the cheapest fossil fuels in cost-capability by the early 2020s in most geographic locations.
Cost-Capability Data
Predictions of SWB cost-capability improvements made using the STDF in 2010 have since been validated. Adoption of each converging energy technology has been growing exponentially for more than two decades, as predicted by the STDF. This exponential growth represents the initial phase of what will ultimately become adoption S-curves for each technology.
Disruption of Transportation
Convergence of Technologies
The STDF was used to correctly identify electric vehicles (EVs), autonomous driving, and Transportation-as-a-Service(TaaS) as the disruptive technologies which would converge to offer an overwhelmingly competitive value proposition compared to privately-owned internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. EVs have existed for over a century, but recent advances in battery technology (the same shared by the energy disruption) have now brought the cost-capability of EVs within reach of incumbent ICE vehicles.
Disruption Type
Phase Change disruption
The autonomous cars and trucks that provide affordable TaaS as an alternative to private vehicle ownership will transform mobility itself. A new transportation system will emerge (especially in urban and suburban areas) with properties and features that support new business models (e.g. driverless robotaxi and trucking fleets) which were previously impossible with vehicles that required expensive fuel and a human driver.
Disruption from Above
The costs of EVs and TaaS were initially higher than those of incumbents but are rapidly approaching parity on a trajectory to becoming overwhelmingly competitive by 2030 in many regions.
Cost Capability Data
The cost-capability of EVs has been improving markedly for at least fifteen years. Predictions made using the STDF in 2014 have since been borne out in the data.
Global EV adoption is proceeding exponentially, as predicted by the STDF.
What's Next?
Cost-capability of each converging technology will continue to improve on their current trajectories until adoption ceases to grow exponentially and inflicts into a sigmoid growth trajectory.
Adoption of each converging technology will continue to grow exponentially until the total global quantity of value delivered (kilowatt-hours of electricity in energy, and passenger/freight-miles traveled in transportation) equals or exceeds total global pre-disruption value delivered.
Adoption of each converging technology will eventually plateau at a system scale substantially greater than the pre-disruption energy and transportation systems, as measured by the operative metric of miles-traveled (i.e. of vehicles, passengers, and/or freight).
Some or all of the disruption dynamics will occur in both the energy and the transportation disruptions, leading to loss of public support and social license for fossil fuels, nuclear fission power, ICE vehicles, and other incumbent technologies resulting in their collapse to niche markets a small fraction of their current size.
Adoption is likely to reach 80% of ultimate system size in both the energy and transportation disruptions within 15 years after reaching 10%, meaning before roughly 2040.
