Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030 (2017)

The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries
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We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption of transportation in history.

About the Report:

Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030

By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), 95 percent of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport-as-a-service” (TaaS).

Rethinking Transportation shows how TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions in investor value — but also creating trillions in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.

James Arbib and Tony Seba (RethinkX), May 2017

RethinkX_Report Copy 6-min

Quote Lrg

RethinkX is predicting an overnight sensation that will be no less transformative than the Model T’s erasure of the horse and buggy, the printing press’s impact on literacy and one modern tech gadget’s remaking of communication.

- USA Today, May 2017

Rethinking Transportation Report References

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5 Challer. 2017. Retrieved from

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33 Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, here

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98 Katakey, R., Jordan, A. 2017. Shell Cuts Debt with $7.25 Billion Sale of Canada Oil Sands. Bloomberg, March 9. Retrieved from

99 Martin, M. and Narayanan, A. 2017. Saudi Aramco Hires Banks for First Time Bond Sale Ahead of IPO. Bloomberg, February 06. Retrieved from

100 Chazan, G. 2016. Eon and RWE Pursue Radical Restructurings. Financial Times, May 18. Retrieved from

101 Krauss, C. 2016. Exxon Concedes It May Need to Declare Lower Value for Oil in Ground. The New York Times, October 28. Retrieved from here.

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106 Auto Alliance. 2016. America’s Automobile Industry Is One of the Most Powerful Engines Driving the US Economy. January 26. Retrieved from

107 Greenhouse, S. 2016. Autonomous Vehicles Could Cost America 5 Million Jobs. What Should We Do About It? LA Times, September 22. Retrieved from

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123 Anair, D., Nealer, R. and Reichmuth, D. 2015. Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave, How Electric Cars Beat Gasoline Cars on Lifetime Global Warming Emission. Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved from

124 ibid.

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126 Faias, S., Sousa, J., Xavier, L., Ferreira, P. 2011. Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions Evaluation for Electric and Internal Combustion Vehicles using a LCA Approach. International Conference on Renewable Energy and Power Quality 1(9): 1382—1388.

128 Ayre, J. 2017. Tesla Gigafactory Rooftop Solar System To Be 7 Times Larger Than Largest Rooftop Solar System Today. Clean Technica. January 16. Retrieved from

129 Apple. 2016. Apple Joins RE100, Announces Supplier Clean Energy Pledges. September 19. Retrieved from

130 World Health Organization (WHO). 2016. Ambient Air Pollution: A Global Assessment of Exposure and Burden of Disease. Retrieved from

131 Measured by individuals’ willingness to pay to reduce the risk of dying (OECD. 2014. The Cost of Air Pollution: Health Impacts of Road Transport. OECD Publishing, Paris. Retrieved from

132 World Health Organization. 2015. Economic Cost of the Health Impact of Air Pollution in Europe: Clean Air, Health and Wealth. Retrieved from

133 OECD. 2014. The Cost of Air Pollution: Health Impacts of Road Transport. OECD Publishing, Paris. Retrieved from

134 World Health Organization. 2015. Global Status Report on Road Safety. Retrieved from

135 Seba, T. 2014. Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030. Clean Planet Ventures, California.

136 Noland, E. 2016. Oil: Assessing Global Geopolitical Risks. CME Group. August 31. Retrieved from

137 Politico Magazine. 2016. The Hidden Consequences of the Oil Crash. January 21. Retrieved from

138 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).. 2016. How Much Petroleum Does the United States Import and Export? October 4. Retrieved from

139 Egbue, O. and Long, S. 2011. Critical Issues in the Supply Chain of Lithium for Electric Vehicle Batteries. Engineering Management Journal 24(3): 52-62.

140 Lithium reserves (million tons): Bolivia: 9, Chile: 7.5, US: 6.7, Argentina: 6.5, Australia: 1.7, and China: 5.1. U.S. Geological Survey. 2016. Lithium. Retrieved from

141 Reuters. 2016. What Price Lithium, the Metal of the Future? June 6. Retrieved from

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143 Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. 2016. Elon Musk: Our Lithium-Ion Batteries Should Be Called Nickel –graphite. June 16. Retrieved from

144 Qnovo. 2016. The Cost Components of a Lithium-Ion Battery. January 11. Retrieved from

145 Lacey, S. 2016. “Stem CTO: Lithium-ion Battery Prices Fell 70% In The Last 18 Months.” Green Tech Media, June 28. Retrieved from

146 Lithium and cobalt experts at Benchmark Minerals. Retrieved from

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148 Will L. 2016. “Come as You Are — Lithium, Cobalt and Tesla’s Battery Problem.” Harvard Business Review, November 4. Retrieved from

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155 Lambert, F. 2016. Breakdown of Raw Materials in Tesla’s Batteries and Possible Bottlenecks. Electrek, November 01. Retrieved from

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163 Lambert, F. 2016. Tesla Model S Battery Pack Data Shows Very Little Capacity Loss Over High Mileage. Elecktrek, June 16. Retrieved from

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212 Ibid.

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