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Rethinking Energy 2020-2030 (2020):

100% Solar, Wind and Batteries is Just the Beginning
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We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most profound disruption of the energy sector in over a century

About the Report

Rethinking Energy 2020-2030 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Just the Beginning

We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most profound disruption of the energy sector in over a century. Like most disruptions, this one is being driven by the convergence of several key technologies whose costs and capabilities have been improving on consistent and predictable trajectories – namely, solar photovoltaic power, wind power, and lithium-ion battery energy storage.

Our analysis shows that 100% clean electricity from the combination of solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) is both physically possible and economically affordable across the entire continental United States as well as the overwhelming majority of other populated regions of the world by 2030. Adoption of SWB is growing exponentially worldwide and disruption is now inevitable because by 2030 they will offer the cheapest electricity option for most regions.

Coal, gas, and nuclear power assets will become stranded during the 2020s, and no new investment in these technologies is rational from this point forward.

Adam Dorr and Tony Seba (RethinkX),  October 2020

https://doi.org/10.61322/KRFH3351

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Just as the Internet disrupted many incumbent industries but facilitated the emergence of many more – and created trillions of dollars of new value – by reducing the marginal cost of information to near zero, the SWB disruption will have a similar impact by reducing the marginal cost of energy to near-zero for a substantial portion of the year.

- Rethinking Energy (2020) Report

Supplementary Material:

Rethinking Energy 2020-2030: Methodology

This methodological note presents the data sources, logic, and assumptions upon which our electricity sector modeling is based.Note, this document will be extended with methodological updates as part of a series of research reports that we plan to publish on the disruption of the energy sector.

Adam Dorr & Tony Seba (RethinkX), November 2020

https://doi.org/10.61322/WUTO5079

Rethinking Energy Report References

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3 Berkeley Lab & Bolinger, M. Wind Technologies Market Report. Retrieved from https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2020_wind_energy_technology_data_update.xlsx. (2020).

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29 US EIA. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) – How much electricity is lost in electricity transmission and distribution in the United States? U.S. Energy Information Administration. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php. (2020).

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31 ERCOT. ERCOT Generation – Fuel Mix. ERCOT Retrieved from https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/generation. (2020).

32 ISO New England. ISO New England – Energy, Load, and Demand Reports. ISO New England Retrieved from https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/reports/load-and-demand/-/tree/net-ener-peak-load. (2020).

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34 Seba, T. Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030. (2014).

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37 Haider, H. T., See, O. H. & Elmenreich, W. A review of residential demand response of smart grid. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 59, 166–178 (2016).

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39 FERC. 2019 Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering. Retrieved from https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/DR-AM-Report2019_2.pdf. (2019).

40 Mallapragada, D. S., Sepulveda, N. A. & Jenkins, J. D. Long-run system value of battery energy storage in future grids with increasing wind and solar generation. Appl. Energy 275, 115390 (2020).

41 Seba, T. & Arbib, J. Rethinking Humanity: Five Foundational Sector Disruptions, the Lifecycle of Civilizations, and the Coming Age of Freedom. (Tony Seba, 2020).

42 California Energy Commission. Electricity From Wind Energy Statistics and Data. California Energy Commission Retrieved from https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/renewables_data/wind/index_cms.php. (2020).

43 SEIA. California Solar. Solar Energy Industries Association Retrieved from https://www.seia.org/state-solar-policy/california-solar. (2020).

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46 ISO-NE. CELT Reports 2010-2020. Retrieved from https://www.iso-ne.com/system-planning/system-plans-studies/celt/. (2020).

47 Tarczynska, K. Money Lost to the Cloud How Data Centers Benefit from State and Local Government Subsidies. Retrieved from https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/docs/pdf/datacenters.pdf. (2016).

48 Reuters. Location and tax breaks key to Shell’s Pennsylvania cracker plant approval. Reuters Events Retrieved from https://www.reutersevents.com/downstream/engineering-and-construction/location-and-tax-breaks-key-shells-pennsylvania-cracker-plant-approval. (2016).

49 Tesla, Inc. Model Y | Tesla. Model Y Retrieved from https://www.tesla.com/modely. (2020).

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51 Jones, N. How to stop data centres from gobbling up the world’s electricity. Nature 561, 163–166 (2018)

52 Reuters. Renewable energy’s share of German power mix rose to 46% last year: research group. Reuters (2020).

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57 US EPA, O. Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. US EPA Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions. (2020).

58 US EIA. Use of oil – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). U.S. Energy Information Administration Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php. (2019).

59 US EIA. What countries are the top producers and consumers of oil? U.S. Energy Information Administration Retrieved from here. (2019).

60 Mundhal, E. California Renewables and the Mystery of Negative Power Prices. InsideSources Retrieved from https://www.insidesources.com/california-renewables-and-the-mystery-of-negative-power-prices/. (2018).

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62 Perez, R. & Rabago, K. Overbuild solar: it’s getting so cheap curtailment won’t matter. Energy Post Retrieved from https://energypost.eu/overbuild-solar-its-getting-so-cheap-curtailment-wont-matter/. (2019).

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Rethinking Energy Methodology References

1 ERCOT. ERCOT Generation - Fuel Mix. ERCOT Retrieved here http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/generation (2020).

2 California ISO. Production and Curtailment Data. California ISO - Managing Oversupply Retrieved here http://www.caiso.com/informed/Pages/ManagingOversupply.aspx (2020).

3. ISO New England. ISO New England - Energy, Load, and Demand Reports. ISO New England Retrieved here https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/reports/load-and-demand/-/tree/net-ener-peak-load (2020).

4. Perez, M., Perez, R., Rábago, K. R. & Putnam, M. Overbuilding & curtailment: The cost-effective enablers of firm PV generation. Sol. Energy180, 412–422 (2019).

5. Wärtsilä. The path towards a 100% renewable energy future. Retrieved here https://www.wartsila.com/docs/default-source/power-plants-documents/downloads/whitepapers/general/wartsila-bwp-the-path-towards-a-100-renewable-energy-future.pdf (2018).

6. MN Solar Pathways, Clean Power Research, Putnam, Morgan & Perez, Marc. Solar Potential Analysis Report. Retrieved here http://mnsolarpathways.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/solar-potential-analysis-finalreport-nov15-2.pdf (2018).

7. Specht, M. Renewable Energy Curtailment 101: The Problem That’s Actually Not a Problem At All. Union of Concerned Scientists Retrieved here https://blog.ucsusa.org/mark-specht/renewable-energy-curtailment101 (2019).

8. Putnam, M. ‘Economic Curtailment’ – what it is and how to embrace it. pv magazine USA Retrieved here https://pvmagazine-usa.com/2019/11/19/economic-curtailment-what-it-is-and-how-to-embrace-it/ (2019).

9. Lacey, S. Solar and Wind Curtailment: A Liability or Asset for Decarbonizing the Grid? Retrieved here https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-solar-and-wind-curtailment-an-asset-or-liability.

10. BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. Retrieved here www.bp.com/statisticalreview (2019).

11. US EIA. Capacity Factors for Utility Scale Generators Primarily Using Fossil Fuels. U.S. Energy Information Administration Retrieved here https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_6_07_a (2020).

12. NREL. Levelized Cost of Energy Calculator | Energy Analysis | NREL. NREL Levelized Cost of Energy Calculator Retrieved here https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech-lcoe.html (2020).

13. Lazard. Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis - Version 14.0. Retrieved here https://edubirdie.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/cost-of-energy-report.pdf (2019).

14. Fu, Ran, Feldman, D. & Margolis, R. U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark: Q1 2018. Retrieved here https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72399.pdf (2018).

15. Bolinger, M., Seel, J. & Robson, D. Utility-Scale Solar: Empirical Trends in Project Technology, Cost, Performance, and PPA Pricing in the United States – 2019 Edition. Retrieved here https://emp.lbl.gov/utilityscale-solar/ (2019).

16. Wiser, R. & Bolinger, M. Wind Technologies Market Report | Electricity Markets and Policy Group. Retrieved here https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-technologies-market-report (2019).

17. Schmidt, O., Hawkes, A., Gambhir, A. & Staffell, I. The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates. Nat. Energy 2, 17110 (2017).

18. Goldie-Scot, L. A Behind the Scenes Take on Lithium-ion Battery Prices. BloombergNEF Retrieved here https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/ (2019).

19. US EIA. U.S. Battery Storage Market Trends. Battery Source: US EIA Battery Storage Market Trends 2018 Retrieved here https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/electricity/batterystorage/pdf/battery_storage.pdf (2018).

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