The Seba Technology Disruption Framework is an open-access tool for technology forecasting that has evolved through use by policymakers, managers, investors, researchers, and other practitioners over the last decade.
About the Paper
Toward a Practical Theory of Technology Disruption: Seba Technology Disruption Framework 2025
This framework extends the work of Clayton Christensen, Larry Downes, Paul Nunes, and others, by expanding the classification scheme for different types of technology disruption, categorizing them on the basis of initial conditions (From Below, From Above, or “Big Bang”) and scale of impact (Product, Composition, Architectural, or Phase Change). The framework draws upon insights from systems theory to explain how the dynamics of each type of disruption are driven by cost and capability improvements among converging technologies, which in turn unlock a new possibility space within which hitherto unmet market demand can be satisfied. Qualitative and quantitative data from over 1,000 historical cases of technological innovation spanning all of human history inform the framework, and forecasts made over the past decade using the framework have proven remarkably accurate. By building upon past theoretical work to enhance our understanding of how and why disruptions occur, the STDF aims to empower users to better forecast and navigate future technological and social change.
- Tony Seba, James Arbib, Adam Dorr, Bradd Libby, Owen Westfold, Taylor Hinds
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