Topic / Health / Implications
Part 2.3: Social Implications
Social and Cultural Shifts
Beyond just the specific industries immediately impacted by changing consumer health and behavior patterns, the HOTs disruption will reshape society in important ways.
Equality and equity
Obesity, with all of its downstream health consequences, is not evenly distributed across society. In many of the world’s countries, lower-income communities and groups suffer higher obesity rates because a lack of economic prosperity and stability leads – perhaps counterintuitively – to overconsumption. The root causes of these disparities are largely structural: decades of targeted marketing of cheap and tasty but unhealthy foods, limited access to nutritious alternatives in “food deserts”, higher allostatic load, sleep deprivation, higher workplace injury rates, less nutritional awareness and education, socioeconomic marginally, and other factors have contributed to climbing obesity rates worldwide.
By themselves, HOTs do not fix any of these structural problems. But by modulating the dopamine reward pathways and metabolic processes that reinforce impulsive and compulsive overconsumption, they could help level a playing field that has been tilted against disadvantaged communities for generations. Moreover, by enabling lower-income individuals and families to spend less on food, HOTs can also help loosen the grip of the poverty trap.
It follows that the communities and populations which stand to benefit the most from the HOTs disruption are, by definition, those that have suffered the most from the conditions it treats.
Criminal justice system savings
Abuse of alcohol and illicit drugs is a gateway into criminality, and thus a key driver of cost in the criminal justice system of most societies. The numbers for the United States are sobering. According to the National Council on Alcohol and Drug Dependence, 80% of all offenders abuse drugs or alcohol, almost 50% of jail and prison inmates are clinically addicted, and about 60% of all individuals arrested test positive for illegal drugs at the time of arrest. The National Institute on Drug Abuse reports an even higher estimate of 65% of the prison population having an active substance abuse disorder. Almost 20% of state and federal prisoners reported that they committed their current offense to support their addiction. Moreover, alcohol intoxication is involved in 40% of all violent crimes and almost 40% of all traffic fatalities. Alcohol is also involved in a large fraction (up to 40%) of all cases of domestic abuse and child abuse.
In the United States, total criminal justice systems expenditures amount to almost $300 billion based on state and local data: $135 billion on police, $87 billion on correction, $52 billion on courts, and over $50 billion in federal spending. This represents nearly 1% of GDP. As much as 40% of criminal justice system expenditure in the United States, or $110 billion each year, is directly associated with abuse of alcohol and illicit drugs.
Widespread adoption of HOTs therefore has extraordinary potential to both avert individuals away from criminality by reducing alcohol and illicit drug abuse as a gateway, as well as to help society as a whole reduce the enormous costs of the criminal justice system.
Social status and signaling
Food and weight have been culturally intertwined with social status and social signaling throughout history. In less affluent cultures, especially historically, obesity was an overt symbol of wealth and privilege. In many societies today, however, obesity indicates nearer the opposite. The HOTs disruption will transform the cultural valence of body composition once again.
It is too early to know exactly which ways this changes will unfold, and there is sure to be significant variation across the world’s cultures. Nevertheless, we can be certain that perceptions of food and weight will shift, once health optimization becomes an affordable and accessible choice for most adults in most countries.
Dating and Relationships
Nearly 60% of GLP-1 users reported significant impacts on their romantic lives. These users noted generally positive changes such as purchasing new clothing, hearing from former partners who wanted to reconnect, getting more matches on dating sites and apps, presenting themselves more confidently online, asking other people out more confidently, and going on more dates.
Some users reported mixed results, especially around body satisfaction and libido. So far it appears the impacts of HOTs are more positive than negative, but further analysis will be required as more data comes in and newer HOTs are adopted.
On balance, however, we ought to expect that a physically and mentally healthier population will have greater self-confidence and be more inclined to seek romantic relationships, and that HOTs users will therefore have a competitive advantage in the dating pool over non-users.
It is noteworthy that attorneys and psychologists have observed a rise in relationship friction and breakups among HOTs users. When one person in a relationship undergoes a major physical transformation, it can alter the dynamic between the partners due to shifts in self-confidence, lifestyle changes, and insecurities from the other partner. However, body transformations can also lead to increased intimacy for some couples, especially if they embark on a healthier lifestyle together.
Fashion
Fashion is more than just an industry for providing utilitarian clothing, it is also an ancient and important mode of individual and cultural identity and expression. Widespread HOTs adoption would mean many adults who are obese today would become healthier and much closer to their own personal ideal self. It is reasonable to expect that this will drive changes, and perhaps renewed interest in, in the psychological and social dimensions of fashion choices.
Cultural and religious traditions
Cultural and religious communities will be affected by the disruption as HOTs alter the neurological linkages between food, identity, and heritage. Not all cultural cuisines are aligned with present-day nutrition optimization, and those whose traditional dishes emphasize simple carbohydrate-heavy staples like bread, rice, pasta, and sugars will be disproportionately impacted by changes in eating habits driven by the HOTs disruption.
Religious institutions face challenges as well: if pharmaceutical intervention eliminates the desire to overeat, what becomes of the virtues and practices which center upon resisting temptation?
Economic Productivity Gains
From improved health
In the near term, prior to the widespread disruption of labor by AI and robotics, HOTs adoption will increase workforce participation, increase per-capita productivity, and reduce days lost to illness and injury by straightforwardly boosting the number of people who are physically and mentally healthy.
The productivity impacts of HOTs adoption would be disproportionately large among those in middle age and older, where ill-health is most likely to diminish productivity.
From postponed retirement
On one hand, people who are more healthful, vigorous, and youthful may be more likely to extend their careers before retiring. On the other hand, those people may consider retiring earlier if they see healthfulness offering greater opportunities and value in retirement itself. It is not entirely clear from existing data whether “early exiters” will outnumber “career persisters” and “bridge workers”, but the weight of evidence suggests more will choose to keep working if they are physically and mentally able.
Public revenue and spending
More tax revenue from productivity boosts
The large productivity boost from widespread HOTs adoption will translate into GDP growth with a concordant increase in tax revenue – all else equal.
Less public spending on healthcare, disability, food assistance, and criminal justice
A healthier, more vigorous, more productive, and less addicted adult population that is consuming less low-quality food will require substantially less support from government programs in this domains, and thus less government spending. Savings will almost certainly reach tens of billions of dollars across these domains, and possibly much more.
More public spending on longer retirement years
Healthier retirees who live several years longer thanks to the health benefits of HOTs will logically draw more in total from public benefit programs of all kinds. In the United States, extending longevity would raise costs in what are already some of the largest areas of public spending, including Social Security (retirement/pension income) and Medicare/Medicaid (healthcare).
