An estimated 60-65 million total deaths occur worldwide each year, and the share of all deaths attributed to obesity is now approaching 10%.
By reducing obesity, HOTs will not only prevent deaths, but also prevent the years suffering and loss leading up to those deaths.
The sheer scale of the global obesity epidemic means that every year which we delay making HOTs universally available to all adults is another year of enormous loss, suffering, and death worldwide that can now be avoided.
The sweeping benefits and enormous return on public investment in HOTs makes universal access a moral, economic, and strategic imperative for every nation.
HOTs should be viewed as a new kind of infrastructure that creates the enabling conditions for human health, productivity, and flourishing the same way roads, electricity, and clean water do.
Nations that act decisively can capture the staggering benefits of HOTs technologies for their people starting immediately, which will only help to position them for the other technology disruptions and transformations that lie ahead in this challenging era.
A Call to Action with the Highest Stakes
The emergence of HOTs is an urgent call to action for policymakers, investors, industry leaders, and other key decision makers worldwide.
Obesity kills millions worldwide each year. Its downstream health consequences contribute to as much as 10% of all global deaths. And it costs the world trillions of dollars in medical costs and lost productivity.
Every year that access to HOTs remains restricted is another year of avoidable loss, suffering, and death on an almost incomprehensible scale.
HOTs as Infrastructure
The conventional framing of HOTs like GLP-1s as “medications” underestimates what they represent.
HOTs should be viewed as a new kind of infrastructure. By creating the enabling conditions for healthfulness, they are a catalyst for vitality across all of society and productivity throughout the entire economy.
National Mobilization
It is prudent to expect generic HOTs prices (not costs) as low as $10 per month by the mid-2030s in most regions. Even before then, the enormous return on public investment in HOTs as infrastructure makes national mobilization to ensure universal access a moral, economic, and strategic imperative.
Universal access to all adults under the guidance of their doctor implies a number of key policy choices:
Securing domestic supply
Establishing pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity for HOTs is prudent as a matter of national security.
Dependence on foreign supply for a technology this consequential creates unacceptable strategic vulnerability.
Adopting open-source alternatives
Open-source modeling platforms, publicly available genomic databases, and in-silico trialing methods are already democratizing drug development.
Public investment in drug development capability could allow nations to bypass proprietary pharmaceutical IP and the rent-seeking behavior of incumbent firms.
Nationalizing IP where necessary
When a technology’s value to public health is measured in trillions of dollars annually and its marginal production cost is under $5 per month, maintaining artificial scarcity through patent monopolies that can charge prices of $1,000 or more per month becomes untenable.
Compulsory licensing, public patent pools, and direct public investment in generic production are all legitimate policy tools to apply to the HOTs disruption.
The addition of GLP-1 drugs to the World Health Organization (WHO) Essential Medicines List signals the direction of international consensus.
Sovereign Resilience
Our world is facing overlapping disruptions in foundational sectors of energy, transportation, food, and labor simultaneously. This magnitude of technological change is unprecedented in human history.
To navigate this era of transformation, nations will need resilient populations. Sovereign resilience requires individuals, communities, and all of society at their physical and mental best to face tomorrow’s challenges.
Leadership
The HOTs disruption is here. Nations that act decisively can capture the full value of these extraordinary technologies starting now, and ensure their people thrive as we enter a new era and move toward a Stellar future.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this report is for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. This report does not establish a doctor-patient relationship. The content within this report regarding GLP-1 receptor agonists (or any other medical treatments) should not be used as a substitute for professional medical advice. Always seek the advice of your physician or other qualified health provider with any questions you may have regarding a medical condition or treatment options. Never disregard professional medical advice or delay in seeking it because of something you have read in this report. The authors and publishers of this report make no representation or warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, adequacy, validity, reliability, availability, or completeness of any information presented. Reliance on any information provided in this report is solely at your own risk.
The HOT Disruption
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