Topic / Health / Implications
Part 2.5: Environmental Implications
Food and agriculture have a very large ecological footprint. Even a 5% reduction in food and agriculture production would translate into substantial real-world environmental benefits across most dimensions of concern.
Agricultural land use
If all 40% of American adults who are currently obese were to reduce their calorie consumption by 500 calories using HOTs, this would translate into a reduction of roughly 800 produced calories per day for 107 million people (accounting for the average rate of food waste), or a 6% reduction in total caloric production for the country. Even if we ignore any impacts on pasture and grazing land, this would still translate into a reduction of over 4.5 million acres (nearly 2 million hectares) in cropland, or an area almost the size of New Hampshire. These impacts would disproportionately impact agriculture dedicated to sugar and carbohydrates, including corn, wheat, sugar beets and sugar cane.
Emissions reductions
- CO2 emissions associated with intensive agriculture will decline, and any restored soils and reforested lands will help capture and store more carbon
- CO2 emissions associated with food transportation will decline (at least until the transformation to a fully electrified transportation system is complete)
- Nitrous oxide from synthetic fertilizers will decline with reduced crop production, as will harmful runoff
- Methane from any reduction in animal agriculture (most especially cattle) will decline
- Methane from food waste will decline
Water cycle transformation
- Agriculture represents the majority of human freshwater use
- Reduced food demand translates into reduced water withdrawals
- Overexploited aquifers across the American Great Plains (and elsewhere in the world) will see some relief from irrigation demand
Ecosystem Recovery
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Freeing up land from agriculture creates opportunities for conservation, restoration, reforestation, and rewilding
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Soil recovery can help rebuild topsoil, store water, and sequester carbon
Pollution reduction
- Use of pesticides and fertilizers will decline, with commensurate reductions in air, water, and soil pollution
- Runoff that contributes to hypoxic marine dead zones will decline, helping foster recovery of coastal ecosystems
