Getting It Right

Mainstream analysts produce linear forecasts based on mechanistic and siloed methodology that does not account for the complex, adaptive systems of the economy and society. As a result they routinely underestimate improvements in the cost and capabilities of technologies, the speed of their adoption, and the rapid speed of collapse of incumbents, and the broader implications of disruption.

The Seba Technology Disruption Framework takes a systems approach to analyze the market forces triggered by technology convergence, business model innovation, product innovation, and exponential improvements in both cost and capabilities. It captures the complex processes that drive a pattern of rapid, non- linear change.

As a result, RethinkX co-founders Tony Seba and James Arbib have been consistently more accurate than mainstream analysts in predicting the speed and scale of technological disruption.

In 2005

  • To demonstrate the power of the methodology, in 2005 Tony put together a virtual “Winners Take All” stock portfolio of 15 companies inventing and implementing disruptive technologies and business models. As of February 2020, the portfolio has since risen by 2,500%, or 25% a year, massively outperforming the market. Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 296% (10% a year) while the Nasdaq rose 437% (12% a year). The average US equity fund returned 180% (7% a year).

In 2010

  • Forecast that by 2020 the cost of generating solar PV energy would drop to 3-5 cents/kWh (at the time the cost was 15 cents/kWh). The cost today is less than 4 cents/kWh. The same year, the International Energy Agency forecast a cost of 7 cents/kWh by 2030.

  • Forecast that by 2020 the cost of lithium-ion batteries would drop to $200/kWh or below (the cost at the time was $1,100/kWh). Today, they cost approximately $150/kWh. Mainstream analysts projected much higher costs. For example, in 2013, the consultant PWC forecast a cost of $300 in 2020.

In 2014

  • Forecast dramatic disruption of the energy sector with serious knock-on effects, all of which have come to pass, including the collapse of the coal industry (the Dow Jones Coal Index has since fallen by 96%), and the end of natural gas peaker plants. No one else has predicted this speed or scale of change in the energy sector.

  • Forecast that the cost of a 200-mile range electric vehicle (EV) would fall to $30,000 by 2020 (the cost at the time was $70,000). Today, a GWM Ora R1 EV in China costs around $20,000.

In 2017

  • Forecast oil demand peaking at 100 million barrels a day by 2020, with the collapse of oil prices felt as early as 2021. This is happening now. No one else foresaw this eventuality. We also predicted that demand would drop by 30 million barrels by 2030. Mainstream analysts, industry experts and insiders did not see this happening until the 2040s or 2050s at the earliest.

  • Forecast new internal combustion engine vehicle (ICE) peak sales would happen by 2020 at a time when mainstream analysts were forecasting that the world’s car fleet would double over the next two decades ICE vehicle sales peaked in 2019. We forecast that car resale values would plunge to zero or even negative. This is happening now. We forecast that the EV industry would develop one million-mile EV powertrains in the 2020s. Several car companies have already announced them.

  • Calculated that autonomous technology could be five times safer than human drivers by 2020 and ten times by 2022. Tesla’s data indicates that their EVs with Autopilot engaged are now between six and nine times safer than the average human-driven car in America.