IN THE NEWS
How the Economy Has to Radically Transform to End Fossil Fuels in 20 Years
“A new report by technology forecasting think-tank RethinkX finds that the scope for change could be far larger and faster than either the IPCC or powerful governments like the United States realise: because the most powerful fossil fuel-based industries in the world—oil, gas, and coal; livestock farming; and combustion engines—are going to become obsolete purely due to extant economic factors well within the next 20 years.”
Tony Seba Strikes Again
“Technology disruptions already underway in the energy, transportation, and food sectors have extraordinary implications for climate change. These three disruptions alone, driven by just eight technologies, can directly eliminate over 90% of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide within 15 years. Market forces can be leveraged to drive the bulk of global GHG emissions mitigation because the technologies required are either already commercially available and competitive today, or can be deployed to market before 2025 with the right societal choices.”
“Get serious”: Eight technologies that could eliminate nearly all emissions by 2035
“A new report says accelerating eight existing technologies across renewable energy, electric transport and lab-grown food can do the heavy lifting on climate action and cut greenhouse emissions by 90 percent within fifteen years. Californian think tank RethinkX – co-founded by Stanford University technology expert Tony Seba, is advocating for a technology and market-led approach in its report Rethinking Climate Change.”
Is Oversizing Renewable Energy the Key to Net Zero?
“Often policymakers and planners assume that renewables plus storage are too expensive to bring online in large quantities, but a new report from the independent think tank RethinkX challenges that view. Rethinking Climate Change finds that it’s important to add these technologies, both in front and behind the meter, and to oversize the renewables portion, installing three to five times more generating capacity than is now on the grid — then add storage. This will allow nations globally to achieve net zero in the 2030s in a cost-effective manner, said the report.”
Tech disruption could cut emissions rapidly – Rethink X
“More than three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions can be mitigated by just eight key technologies that are either already at market or able to scale immediately, according to a report by thinktank RethinkX. The report presents three scenarios that the authors believe are achievable—the least ambitious of which sees global emissions fall 80pc from current levels by 2040, and the most ambitious of which sees global emissions reach close to net zero by 2040.”
We are approaching the fastest, deepest, most consequential technological disruption in history
“In the next 10 years, key technologies will converge to completely disrupt the five foundational sectors—information, energy, food, transportation, and materials—that underpin our global economy. We need to make sure the disruption benefits everyone.”
How Distributed Energy could help usher in a New ‘Age of Freedom
“Tony Seba gets a lot of things right. The world-renowned thought leader, entrepreneur, educator and author accurately predicted the rapid decline in solar photovoltaic costs and lithium-ion batteries. He also predicted the collapse of the coal industry and oil prices. Now, he’s out with a new book, Rethinking Humanity, that predicts the 2020s will be “the most disruptive decade in history” — not just in terms of energy technology, but across every major industry in the world today.”
How Technology is Ushering in the Age of Freedom
“Rethinking Humanity, published by the think tank RethinkX is a fascinating read that talks about how major technological shifts in key sectors such as agriculture and energy are about to usher in a new age for humanity.”
Rethinking Humanity with Tony Seba
“For the first time in history, we could overcome poverty easily. Access to all our basic needs could become a fundamental human right. But this is just one future outcome. The alternative could see our civilization collapse into a new dark age. Which path we take depends on the choices we make, starting today. The stakes could not be higher.”
The case for optimism: By 2030, everything will be so cheap that we’ll be able to end poverty
A decade ago, mainstream experts weren’t predicting that the cost of solar power would fall as steeply as it has by 2020—it’s now down more than 80% so far. Tony Seba, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur and investor, was one of the few to get the forecast right. Seba and investor James Arbib, who run a think tank called RethinkX, now say that similar changes could happen in other parts of the economy, transforming the cost of everyday life so significantly that it could pull people out of poverty.
Business Daily - Rethinking Humanity
“The 2020s will be transformational for humanity, according to the tech prophet founders of RethinkX, Tony Seba and James Arbib talk to Justin Rowlatt about their prediction that a confluence of new technologies - in energy, transportation, and food and materials production - could wipe out poverty and solve climate change in the next 10-15 years, and usher in a new ‘Age of Freedom’ for our species.”
Rethinking Humanity - An extraordinary interview with American futurist Tony Seba
“We’re on the cusp of on the fastest, deepest and most consequential transformation of civilizations in history. During the 2020’s, we are going to have a convergence of technologies in the five fundamental sectors of the economy: energy, information, transportation, food and materials,” said Tony Seba.
The end of farming?
“According to a recent report by the think tank RethinkX, within 15 years the rise of cell-based meat, which is made of animal cells grown in a bioreactor, will bankrupt the US’s huge beef industry, at the same time removing the need to grow soya and maize for feed. By 2035, the report predicts, an area a quarter of the size of the continental US ‘will be freed for other uses.’”
Die Disruption der Kuh (The Disruption of the Cow”)
“If the veggie market gets as big as its followers hope and the food giants expect, then something will really happen. For example, a California think tank - RethinkX - predicts that today's dairy and meat industries will disappear by 2030. And, that global agriculture is facing the greatest upheaval in history.” (Translated)
Food 'made from air' could compete with soya
“Research by the think tank RethinkX, which forecasts the implications of technology-driven disruption of many kinds, suggests that proteins from precision fermentation will be around 10 times cheaper than animal protein by 2035. It forecasts the result will be the near-complete collapse of the livestock industry - although critics will complain that this doesn’t take into account the ability of meat producers to harness the novel proteins to feed their own stock.”
We’re very close to disrupting the cow
“An unstoppable trifecta of fast-improving technology, new business models, and fast-falling costs is creating the deepest, most consequential disruption of food and agriculture in ten thousand years. We face the end of the cattle industry as we know it, and the exponential market growth of inexpensive, high-quality, tasty modern food designed using food-as-software technology based on precise consumer specifications.”
Meat is off the menu as hi-tech rivals thrive
“A new study by RethinkX, a think tank, forecasts that plant-based competitors will be five times cheaper than animal proteins by 2030, with more price falls after that. They will eventually cost the same as sugar. By 2030 the quantity of beef mince consumed in the US will have shrunk by 70 per cent, and the steak market by 30 per cent. The number of cows will be halved. The dairy industry will be bankrupt: the flavour and protein content of milk will soon be reproduced with biotechnology; the value of agricultural land will plummet.”
Why The Beef And Dairy Industries Are On A Cow Path to Oblivion
“Milk consumption continues to decline despite the industry's marketers having convinced celebrities to wear milk mustaches for 21 years. And recently, a report from think tank RethinkX predicted the dairy and cattle industries will be defunct by 2030, as scientists develop new types of meat- and milk-type products that are tastier and easier on the environment at a lower cost.”
The writing on the wall: The coming collapse of the industrial livestock industry
“From 2012 to 2023, the costs of protein in the U.S. from cows vs. precision-biology food technology will reach parity, says independent think tank RethinkX. It will be a tipping point after which acceptance of modern foods will accelerate quickly, leaving the cattle industry effectively bankrupt by 2030 and five years later down to 10 percent of its current size.”
China Craves Electric Cars, While U.S. Flirts With Ending Tax Credit
“‘If you look at Detroit in the early 20th century, there were 250 carmakers, and that is pretty much what China has in electric vehicles now,’ said Tony Seba, the founder of Rethink X, an American energy and transportation consulting firm. ‘They are far ahead.’ And while the eventual ban on the traditional internal combustion engine is a longer-term goal, China is taking interim steps to promote electric vehicles.”
Will Electric Vehicles Replace Gas-Powered Ones?
“MR. SEBA: By 2030, 95% of U.S. automobile miles traveled will be in on-demand, autonomous electric-vehicle fleets, in a new business model called transport as a service. This disruption isn’t going to be one where individuals simply trade in their gasoline or diesel vehicles for electric vehicles. Both gasoline/diesel vehicles and the individual ownership of automobiles will be disrupted. “
La stratégie d’Oslo pour réduire, voire éliminer, les voitures personnelles (Oslo’s Strategy to Reduce or Eliminate Personal Cars)
“When you buy a car, you tie up a significant portion of your capital. What if you can use it in another area? A recent report by expert Tony Seba titled 'Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030' shows that the combination of a full mobility service and the money freed up by not buying a car can be an extremely powerful incentive. The choice of consumers and not the offer of a product will drive change and accelerate evolution.”
Inside Tesla -- And What's Really Disrupting The Automotive Industry
“Tony Seba’s most recent study on automotive disruption, ‘Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030,’ makes the fascinating argument that by 2021, oil prices will collapse, electric vehicles will go mainstream, and that by 2030, about 95% of the U.S. population will be served by electric, self-driving vehicles. He calls it ‘Transportation as a Service,’ or ‘Taas,’ for short.”
This is what the demise of oil looks like
“Probably the most noticeable shift in transport will be the electric car. This won’t just be about cars with batteries, but part of the wider trend led by companies including Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. toward transportation as an on-demand service in driverless vehicles summoned from your smartphone, according to RethinkX.”
Automation Nation: A brief guide to self-driving cars and what they could do to your auto insurance
“In their recently published report, "Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030," Tony Seba and James Arbib cite ride-sharing services—or transportation as a service model, as they refer to it—as a key to widespread disruption. They theorize that plugging autonomous cars into the online, pay-by-the-mile infrastructures built by these companies will make the services even more affordable.”
Are Robo-Taxis the Future of Cars?
Ed Butler takes a test drive in a Tesla - with the car doing a chunk of the driving - to find out just how far self-driving technology has already advanced. And he speaks to car tech think tanker James Arbib, who claims that soon all of us will be ditching our old petrol-powered cars altogether, and renting Uber-style electric pods instead.
$25 oil is coming, and a new world order along with it, think tanks says
“‘Oil demand will peak 2021-2020 and will go down by 100 million barrels, and will go down to 70 million barrels within 10 years. And essentially what that means is that the new equilibrium price in the oil markets is going to be $25. So if you produce oil and you can’t compete at $25, essentially you are holding stranded assets,’ Tony Seba said.”
Why nobody will own a car in 2030: Self-driving, electric ride-shares will spell the end for traditional automobiles
“'We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,' said Tony Seba, co-author of the report, produced by RethinkX, an independent research group based in California. The report found Autonomous Electric Vehicles (A-EVs) will be owned by companies providing Transport as a Service (TaaS) by 2030 which will make up 60 per cent of vehicles on US roads.”
The end of petrol and diesel. Will all vehicles will be electric by 2025?
“Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a ‘mass stranding of existing vehicles.’ The value of second-hand cars will plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle. This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba, founder of technology consultants RethinkX. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.”
Why 95 Percent of Your Driving Won't Be in Your Own Car by 2030
“We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,” said Tony Seba, RethinkX co-founder. “But there is nothing magical about it. This is driven by the economics.”
Self-driving electric vehicles to make car ownership vanish
“According to RethinkX, while self-driving vehicles may still seem like a science fair project to many, the technology soon will become so culturally ubiquitous that it will lead to the abandonment of car ownership, a $1 trillion boost in disposable income and a ‘catastrophic’ shift for the oil industry and driver economy.”
The Robot Revolution Will Take Your Car, Your Mom’s Car, and All the Oil in 13 Years
“By 2030, rapid technological improvements and dramatic cost efficiencies in self-driving electric vehicles (EV) will sweep away the energy and economics of oil-powered cars; and with it, global oil demand will plummet. This is the verdict of a new report, Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the ICE Vehicle and Oil Industries, published in May from independent research group, RethinkX.”