Timing

The key enabler of TaaS is autonomous technology. Its availability is based on both technological progress and regulation. Given our analysis of both we have high confidence that it will begin in 2020-25 with 2021 as the most likely date. Even if the US adopts a precautionary approach, other areas (China, Singapore, European cities) will push ahead, meaning the technology reaches readiness in this time frame. AVs learn by doing, so the more cars on the road and the more miles they cover, the faster they will be ready. Technologies that allow cars to benefit from the learning expected from 100m miles in just 1,000 miles are in development, offering a faster track to deployment. This means that by 2030 the disruption will be almost complete.

Regulation can drive this process even faster by hastening the development of AV technology through broad trials, removing barriers and accelerating adoption by ensuring universal access (the utility model) or special lanes or routes for AVs to allow faster travel and greater volume of traffic or through restrictions on humans drivers in cities or in peak times.

Sarah Golden