---
title: "Myth: It is impossible to convert the entire global road transportation fleet to electric vehicles"
description: False. The global vehicle fleet turns over roughly every 20 years.
---

[FAQ & Mythbusting ](https://www.rethinkx.com/faq-and-mythbusting)

# [Myth: It is impossible to convert the entire global road transportation fleet to electric vehicles](https://www.rethinkx.com/faq-and-mythbusting/myth-it-is-impossible-to-convert-the-entire-global-road-transportation-fleet-to-electric-vehicles)

 Written by [RethinkX](https://www.rethinkx.com/faq-and-mythbusting/author/admin) | May 6, 2024 2:36:56 AM

#### False. The global vehicle fleet turns over roughly every 20 years.

As in other disruptions throughout history, once the new technology becomes economically competitive, it will naturally replace the older technology as market adoption follows an S-curve. Today, electric vehicles (EVs) have reached parity and now represent better value for money than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, which means fleet turnover will naturally result in electrification as well.

Furthermore, the promise of autonomous driving technology will further accelerate the pace of adoption because electric and autonomous technologies are complementary. Vehicle utilization will thus shift substantially away from private ownership toward [Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS)](https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation/in-depth/transport-as-a-service) provided via robot taxis, or *robotaxis* for short.

History also shows that supply chain constraints are only ever temporary for materials that are not fundamentally scarce. Recent supply chain bottlenecks in batteries that were exacerbated during the covid-19 pandemic, for example, have already begun to yield as new investment expands supply to meet demand.

### **Explore the evidence...**

- **It was possible for the entire horse and cart industry to be converted to ICE cars within 10 years, and the same will happen as EVs disrupt ICE cars.** Phase change disruptions have occurred again and again throughout our history.[Read our blog post to learn more about historical cases where decision-makers failed to adapt to disruption.](https://www.rethinkx.com/blog/2017-5-3-why-rethinkx-technology-disruption-implications-and-choices)
- **The technology convergence that led to the disruption of the horse and cart by ICE vehicles occurred rapidly in the 20th century. It can provide a historical example for how disruptions affect market dynamics**. [Read p15-17 of our report Rethinking Humanity to learn more about this historical example of disruption within the transportation sector.](https://www.rethinkx.com/publications/rethinkinghumanity2020.en)
- **10% of new car sales are EVs in all major markets. The disruption is inevitable and the transformation is already happening. **EVs taking over ICE vehicles is the first phase of the disruption. The next phase is the rise of Level 4 autonomous electric vehicles (A-EVs). [Watch RethinkX co-founder Tony Seba discuss this in more detail here.](https://youtu.be/Vqs0_3M-18c?t=409)
- **[In this blog post we explain how we can decarbonise road transport efficiently and cheaply using incentives](https://www.rethinkx.com/blog/2018-3-26-zero-emission-miles-how-to-decarbonize-road-transport-quickly-and-cheaply):**  
    - Learn more about the scale and speed of A-EV adoption worldwide on **[p27-30 of our report.](https://www.rethinkx.com/publications/rethinkingtransportation2017.en)**
    - Find out more about the economics behind A-EV and TaaS adoption on **[p15-19 of our report.](https://www.rethinkx.com/publications/rethinkingtransportation2017.en)**
    - Find out how policymakers can accelerate this conversion and transformation on** [p26 of our report.](https://www.rethinkx.com/publications/rethinkingtransportation2017.en)**
- **The scale of the cost differential will be the key factor in the global disruption, as consumers choose TaaS over independently owned ICE vehicles.** [See p57 of our report Rethinking Transportation for an illustration of our cost methodology.](https://www.rethinkx.com/publications/rethinkingtransportation2017.en)
- **[TaaS](https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation/in-depth/transport-as-a-service) (shared A-EVs hailed on demand) will rapidly replace the model of individual car ownership and with it the combustion engine. **Electric vehicles (trucks, vans, buses and cars) can drive half a million miles (soon to be 1 million) as opposed to around 140,000 miles for ICE vehicles. This means fleets will also have to go electric because the per-mile cost of EVs is one-third (soon to be one-sixth) the cost of ICE transportation in high-utilization models. Companies like Amazon and Fedex will have no choice but to quickly replace their whole fleets with electric trucks and vans for purely economic reasons. [Read more about the disruption across foundational sectors on p45-47 of our report Rethinking Humanity.](https://www.rethinkx.com/publications/rethinkinghumanity2020.en)
- [In this video, Director of Research Adam Dorr describes the transportation disruptions cost curves. ](https://youtu.be/8or7aj7-fLE?t=459)He explains how the adoption of EVs is growing explosively.

### **Witness the transformation**

The [disruption of the transportation](https://www.rethinkx.com/disruption/in-depth/disruption-of-transportation) sector by robotaxis and TaaS is inevitable. In common with other technology-driven disruptions, the shift to TaaS will be non linear and follow an S-curve, where TaaS will become progressively cheaper and improve its functionality, while ICE vehicles will become ever more expensive to operate and harder to use. 

[Learn more about the disruption and transformation of the transportation industry.](https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation)

***Published on: 12/07/23***

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